Modeling the sensitivity of cyanobacteria blooms to plausible changes in precipitation and air temperature variability.

Many recent studies have attributed the observed variability of cyanobacteria blooms to meteorological drivers and have projected blooms with worsening societal and ecological impacts under future climate scenarios. Nonetheless, few studies have jointly examined their sensitivity to projected changes in both precipitation and temperature variability. Using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of Lake Champlain's eutrophic Missisquoi Bay, we demonstrate a factorial design approach for evaluating the sensitivity of concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl-a), a cyanobacteria surrogate, to global climate model-informed changes in the central tendency and variability of daily precipitation and air temperature. An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and multivariate contour plots highlight synergistic effects of these climatic changes on exceedances of the World Health Organization's moderate 50 µg/L concentration threshold for recreational contact. Although increased precipitation produces greater riverine total phosphorus loads, warmer and drier scenarios produce the most severe blooms due to the greater mobilization and cyanobacteria uptake of legacy phosphorus under these conditions. Increases in daily precipitation variability aggravate blooms most under warmer and wetter scenarios. Greater temperature variability raises exceedances under current air temperatures but reduces them under more severe warming when water temperatures exceed optimal values for cyanobacteria growth more often. Our experiments, controlled for wind-induced changes to lake water quality, signal the importance of larger summer runoff events for curtailing bloom growth through reductions of water temperature, sunlight penetration and stratification. Finally, the importance of sequences of wet and dry periods in generating cyanobacteria blooms motivates future research on bloom responses to changes in interannual climate persistence.

Generalized perceptual linear prediction features for animal vocalization analysis.

A new feature extraction model, generalized perceptual linear prediction (gPLP), is developed to calculate a set of perceptually relevant features for digital signal analysis of animal vocalizations. The gPLP model is a generalized adaptation of the perceptual linear prediction model, popular in human speech processing, which incorporates perceptual information such as frequency warping and equal loudness normalization into the feature extraction process. Since such perceptual information is available for a number of animal species, this new approach integrates that information into a generalized model to extract perceptually relevant features for a particular species. To illustrate, qualitative and quantitative comparisons are made between the species-specific model, generalized perceptual linear prediction (gPLP), and the original PLP model using a set of vocalizations collected from captive African elephants (Loxodonta africana) and wild beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas). The models that incorporate perceptional information outperform the original human-based models in both visualization and classification tasks.

Automatic classification and speaker identification of African elephant (Loxodonta africana) vocalizations.

A hidden Markov model (HMM) system is presented for automatically classifying African elephant vocalizations. The development of the system is motivated by successful models from human speech analysis and recognition. Classification features include frequency-shifted Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) and log energy, spectrally motivated features which are commonly used in human speech processing. Experiments, including vocalization type classification and speaker identification, are performed on vocalizations collected from captive elephants in a naturalistic environment. The system classified vocalizations with accuracies of 94.3% and 82.5% for type classification and speaker identification classification experiments, respectively. Classification accuracy, statistical significance tests on the model parameters, and qualitative analysis support the effectiveness and robustness of this approach for vocalization analysis in nonhuman species.